Thank you for your insight - that's a good piece of the puzzle!
I found the DarkWake session: WWDC 2012, Session 711, "Power Management" with Ethan Bold and Soren Spies.
Sadly, I can't blame DarkWake because it has been around since 2012, but I only see this unexpected wake on newer macOS.
Since I'm using StartCalendarInterval on different versions, here's what I see:
macOS 12 and earlier behave as expected; sleep through the CalendarInterval
macOS 15 & 26 dark wake at the CalendarInterval
Perhaps Apple changed launchd to be capable of scheduling a dark wake. My guess is there is a Launch[Agent|Daemon] *.plist key that can be used to change this behavior.
I'll fire up BBEdit and go spelunking through /System/Library/LaunchDaemons/ to see if I can find a relevant key.
Of course, if this was documented, I wouldn't be left wondering if I should file a bug report!
Topic:
App & System Services
SubTopic:
Core OS
Tags: