I repeated the same issue with another Apple ID on our team — it worked before conversion to a managed account, but not after. So I'm guessing something is broken with app-specific passwords in managed accounts.
I was able to get the upload working by switching from app-specific passwords to API keys. In Users and Access > Integrations > Keys > App Store Connect API > Team Keys, I created a key, and passed the --apiKey, --apiIssuer, and --p8-file-path arguments to altool.
Topic:
App Store Distribution & Marketing
SubTopic:
App Store Connect API