Yeah! It's working!
I have a macOS 26.0 host. In UTM I have a macOS 15.7 guest with a Provisioning UUID that has never been added as a device in the developer portal. I also have a macOS 14.6.1 guest that has already been added to the developer portal.
In my developer account I added a new device with the new guest VM's UUID. It's the longer style with lowercase hex digits. I then edited my existing manual provisioning profile with the new device. I also added the older existing device that has the short, uppercase style UUID.
In Xcode (26.1 beta 2) I changed my app's signing from automatic to manual and referenced the updated provisioning profile. I built the app and copied the new app to a share I use for the VMs.
I ran the VMs and tried to run the updated app. It failed. I missed one step that maybe some others might miss.
In Xcode, go to Settings, Apple Accounts. Select your account. Then select your team. Then click on "Download Manual Profiles".
Once I did that, I rebuilt the app with the now properly updated provisioning profile and recopied the app to the share.
And now the app runs in both guest VMs!
Key steps for those that are not starting from scratch:
Update your provisioning profile in your developer account. You may need to remove devices and then re-add them. Existing devices might only work if the case of the provisioning UUID on the device matches the case shown in your developer account.
Be sure you are using the updated provisioning profile when you build. Update via Xcode's Settings screen before building the app.
Thanks to those that made this happen.