The distribution certificate is only used in the act of uploading the app to the App Store. Apple discard the signature which was used in the upload process and, when distributing to user devices, sign the app themselves with their own App Store certificate. Thus user devices only need to understand one, Apple certificate.
That is the technical side.
However, on the commercial side it is conceivable that “did not renew a certificate” could induce Apple to think “inactive developer”. I think this is unlikely, given the sophistication of internal communication between departments that would be required. But only Apple can really answer this. If somebody from Apple doesn’t respond to this thread, you might try the Contact Us link in the App Store Connect page.
Topic:
Code Signing
SubTopic:
Certificates, Identifiers & Profiles
Tags: