Could this be failing because the timestamps are inconsistent?
pkgutil is reporting the timestamp in UTC, but codesign appears to have used local time which in my case (UTC+13) is ahead of the package signing time, UTC, and the local time at the at the notarization server.
pkgutil --check-signature myapp.pkg
Package "myapp.pkg":
Status: signed by a developer certificate issued by Apple for distribution
Signed with a trusted timestamp on: 2023-12-19 22:02:34 +0000
...
codesign --display -v --deep --strict myapp.app
Executable=/path/to/myapp.app/Contents/MacOS/myapp
Identifier=myapp
Format=app bundle with Mach-O universal (x86_64 arm64)
CodeDirectory v=20500 size=76755 flags=0x10000(runtime) hashes=2392+3 location=embedded
Signature size=8991
Timestamp=20/12/2023 at 11:02:19 AM
...