I can't speak to timing, but what will happen has to happen in an iOS update.
There will be a future version of iOS where an application that does not support the scene-based lifecycle will not launch.
So, let's look at the options:
You have an existing app on the App Store. You released it ages ago. It uses the app lifecycle. You have not updated it to use the scene-based lifecycle. This app will launch on older versions of iOS, but it will not launch on the new version of iOS. (This will trim a lot of old apps from the App Store.)
You have an existing app on the App Store. You released it ages ago. It uses the app lifecycle. You update it to use the scene-based lifecycle. This app launches on the old versions of iOS, and the new version of iOS.
You're developing an app in Xcode that supports an older version of iOS that allows the app lifecycle method, and your app uses that app lifecycle method. You can build this app and run it on that version of iOS without issue. It launches fine. If you attempt to run it on the latest version of iOS, it will not launch.
You're developing an app in Xcode that supports an older version of iOS that allows the old lifecycle method, but your app uses the new scene-based lifecycle method. You can build this app and run it on the old version of iOS without issue. It launches fine. If you run it on the latest version of iOS, it launches fine.
Now, all new builds submitted to the App Store are supposed to support the latest version of iOS, so when Apple release this new version of iOS that requires the scene-based lifecycle method, and you attempt to upload an app that does not use the scene-based lifecycle method then your app will likely be rejected by the upload or validation process.
As an aside, I recently updated four of my apps to use the scene-based lifecycle, and it was painless. If you need help in migrating, just start a new app in Xcode and it will have the scene-based lifecycle in it. You can see how it's structured and just copy the bits into your existing app. Sure, you might need to rework some things, but it's nowhere near as big a deal as you might think.